WILL THIS HOLIDAY SEASON BRING HOPE OR HORROR? More Random Thoughts on These Trying Times
(Part 8/Month )
by Terrence Shulman
Another month (#8) in the history books. October is gone and November arrives.
The U.S. has had 9 million confirmed Covid cases (up almost 2 million from a month ago) and we’ve had nearly 250,000 deaths this year (up almost 40,000 deaths from a month ago).
The U.S. presidential election is a day away and nearly as many people have voted by absentee ballot. drop-off mail, and early live voting than the entire vote total of the 2016 election. This trend, from what I’ve read and heard, tends to favor Democrats.
Whatever your political persuasion, most people (in the U.S. and beyond) agree that this has been one of the most passionate and polarized elections–and, possibly, the most important–in U.S. history!
It may not be too far a stretch to say we have a modern day civil war in our nation.
And we may not know for days, weeks, or even months who the winner is (Biden or Trump as well as the American people and the world).
While there’s a built-in deadline to have a winner declared by December 9, 2020… who knows what’s going to happen whether a winner is declared or not: the only certainly is that there will be shouts of fraud and protests to follow… let’s hope there’s no violence (or, at least, minimal violence).
It’s probably clear from my earlier columns that I’m no Trump fan (I’ve already voted by mail for Biden/Harris) but I do have some friends, family, clients, and neighbors who don’t share my views of where our country is and where it’s been headed.
I have often thought of addiction and recovery as a metaphor for politics: actually, addiction is like an ongoing civil war inside of us and which we must be diligent against for recovery (peace) to prevail.
Addiction (and addictive thinking) is often characterized as dualistic, “black and white,” or “all or nothing” thinking. In recovery, we recognize that there can be shades of gray: we’re not always right and everybody else is not always wrong.
Whatever political side you’re on, we need to be careful of demonizing the other side and retaining some humility about our fellow brothers and sisters lest we turn into Sunnis and Shiites. (Some would say we’re already there or, at least, headed rapidly to that end).
It’s also been said that the best political minds (and systems) have a blend of “liberal” and “conservative” aspects and thinking.
Another line I’ve heard (but don’t necessarily agree with) is this: “If you’re young and not a liberal you don’t have a heart; if you’re old and not a conservative you don’t have a brain/mind.”
I’d suggest that that this is an example of “addictive thinking” and that we each and all need a heart and a brain/mind!
These times have demonstrated that we’re at risk of losing both.
Of course, another aspect of the addiction-recovery journey which can apply to our political times is that we must move from denial to truth and we must value this movement.
As former and deceased New York U.S. Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan put it several decades ago: “You’re entitled to your own opinion but not to your own facts.”
An obvious problem in today’s politics is we can’t even agree on what the truth is.
Despite a rise in white supremacy, anti-semitism, and various misogynistic rhetoric and behavior, I still believe most people would agree with the idea(1) that all people are created (and should be treated) equal.
I still believe most people would agree that Hitler was evil and the bad guy and the U.S. and its allies were the good guys.
But those lines seem to be blurring… and that’s troubling.
My hope has been buoyed by the number of republicans and former republicans who’ve called out Trump and his lies and tactics and vocally supported Biden/Harris for “the sake of our country.”
As with addiction, those who enable are harming themselves, those the enable, and the rest of us, too.
Will there be a day of reckoning if Biden/Harris win? Will Trump be prosecuted for various state or federal charges (even treason?) or will we chose to move on and move forward? What would be best for our country?
The next few days, weeks, or months could be messy and scary.
I hope our democracy can survive and meet this existential test.
As with addiction and recovery… that which doesn’t kill us can, hopefully, make us stronger.
Have a good week… and, if you haven’t done so already: go out and vote!
HOW WILL WE COPE WITH THE PANDEMIC FALL/WINTER?
Mental Health Experts Offer Advice on How to Handle
The Return to Indoor Life The Cooler Weather Will Bring
by Jeff Wilser (New York Times October 9, 2020)
There must Abby Guido is dreading the winter. The cold will force her family back into the same kind of lockdown they faced in the early days of the pandemic. “It’s constantly on my mind,” said Ms. Guido, 41, an assistant professor of graphic and interactive design at Temple University.
Ms. Guido’s husband, Chris, has lymphoma, so the family needs to be particularly careful. He’s in remission, but since chemotherapy has weakened his immune system potentially elevating the risks of Covid-19the family stayed in lockdown until the weather grew warmer in late May, allowing safe outdoor activities. At last they could ride bikes with their two children, explore the park and picnic with friends.
Soon this will end. The isolation will return. Ms. Guido recently began taking the antidepressant Lexapro to calm the looming anxiety, “kind of in preparation for the feelings I know will be coming this winter.”
Millions can relate. The summer brought relief for many outdoor brunches, rambling walks, beers on the stoop yet in the latest of 2020’s cruel twists, the plunge in temperature may cause a surge in infections and stress.
“This is going to be brutal. I think it’s unprecedented on every scale,” said Kim Gorgens, a professor of psychology at the University of Denver. The stress of heading back indoors does not exist in a vacuum, Dr. Gorgens said, but is part of a bleak mix of concerns anxiety over the presidential election, economic uncertainty, wildfires, protests over racial inequalities – and that all of this, collectively, is “reaching a kind of fever pitch.”
This is especially true for underprivileged and marginalized communities, where large multigenerational families are often crammed into one home said Dagmawi Dagnew a psychologist with the Department of
Veterans Affairs and co-founder of a volunteer organization providing mental health resources to the Ethiopian-American community in Philadelphia. “Some of us have the luxury where space is taken for granted,” said Dr. Dagnew, but for low income people, the stress is “related to basic needs” such as ventilation, child care or helping older parents.
And all of us, in every circumstance, are dealing with the cumulative toll of six-plus months of the pandemic. “We’re moving from sprint mode to marathon mode,” said Bethany Teachman, a University of Virginia psychologist specializing in anxiety. She added that since stressors tend to pile up over time, we’ll be “going into winter feeling depleted and exhausted.”
So how can we handle the stress of heading back indoors? What are the best strategies?
Dr. Teachman recommends a three-step approach: Acknowledge, find alternatives and then make a plan. Start by recognizing that it’s OK, and even helpful, for people to “grieve what they have lost,” said Dr. Teachman, “because there are real losses.”
This kind of acceptance is crucial for “emotional regulation,” explained David Rosmarin, the founder of the
Center for Anxiety in New York, and an assistant professor of psychiatry at Harvard Medical School.
“Accept the fact that it might be a crappy winter. Don’t try to fight it. Let the emotions come. It’s a wave. It
crashes over you, and then it passes.”
Once we’ve acknowledged the hardship, “the critical piece is to not stay stuck there,” Dr. Teachman said. “We can recognize that things are hard, without wallowing.” Identify what we have lost (such as socializing), and then find alternatives – maybe online meet-ups, a pod with another family or simply bundling up.
How can we help you lead a better, more fulfilling life at home during the pandemic?
“If you have the opportunity, invest in a really good winter coat,” Dr. Teachman said. “Look into a little heater to put on a patio.”
Planning ahead is important. “Plan now before it gets very cold,” Dr. Teachman said. This is partly for practical reasons that heater might be on back-order and partly for psychological ones, as “it’s actually much harder to make and implement plans once you’re already feeling anxious and stressed.” Dr. Dagnew noted that uncertainty is a key reason we feel stress, so “having a plan is the antidote for uncertainty.”
Every therapist emphasized the importance of social connections. “We are social creatures, and we can’t fight the pandemic by socially isolating ourselves,” said Stefan Hofmann, a professor of psychology at Boston University, and the author of The Anxiety Skills Workbook “Very few people are able to weather the storm by sitting in the room and meditating.”
This will likely mean, yes, more of the dreaded Zoom calls. “You might roll your eyes and hate every minute of it,” Dr. Gorgens said, but we should think of it as “taking your medicine.”
Other basics we shouldn’t overlook: eating healthfully, exercising regularly, following routines (to maintain a sense of control), limiting alcohol and especially getting plenty of sleep. “That’s where you’ll get the biggest reward, as sleep is the common denominator across every mental illness,” said Dr. Gorgens. She also recommended that we “limit exposure to the 24-hour, inflammatory, incendiary news cycle, that will only get louder in advance of Nov. 3.” Consider discrete times for news consumption (such as blocks in the morning and evening), as opposed to an IV drip throughout the day.
As we’re nudged back indoors, we’ll be making constant calculations about what is an acceptable level of risk, which varies for each person: Can a friend swing by for a brief indoor visit if you both wear masks? Can you then offer a cup of coffee, which would mean taking off the mask? Is that OK, if you stay six feet apart? And if you decide that’s allowable, can you just let them stay for lunch or to watch the game?
To lower the stress of that never-ending Covid-19 Math. Dr. Teachman suggested having “some kind of
system, so it doesn’t feel overwhelming every time.” You might make decisions based on checking the test positivity rate from your local health department or guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Dr. Teachman said she uses the online risk calculator at MicroCovid.org, which uses estimates from Covid-19 studies to help users quantify the risks of various scenarios. (CovidCanlDolt.com offers a similar tool.)
Also, don’t underestimate the power of a simple phone call, reaching out and asking for help. “It’s really basic, and it’s still very dependable,” said Nicole Davis, clinical director of crisis services at Seattle’s Crisis Connections hotline. Ms. Davis added that crisis call centers (such as the national suicide prevention hotline, at 800-273-8255) are excellent resources for anyone experiencing acute anxiety and that you don’t need an emergency to call.
Finally, Dr. Hofmann suggested that our end game should be to flip adversity into opportunities. “For anybody who wants to be more resilient, this is the magical thing to do,” Dr. Hofmann said. He advised focusing on meaningful projects and connections; in his case, he has spent more time bonding with his 17- year-old son. Maybe it’s a new career goal, new hobby or new creative outlet there’s at least a bit of truth. in those tired memes reminding us that Shakespeare wrote “King Lear” during a plague. Positive mind-sets matter. Goals give purpose.
“We cannot change the pandemic. It is here. We have to accept it,” Dr. Hofmann said. Instead, he advised: “Find where you want to go with your life, and go in this direction.”
A5 WAYS HOLIDAY SHOPPING WILL BE DIFFERENT THIS YEAR
by Blake Morgan CMO Network, October 26, 2020
Big sales, big crowds, big profits-holiday shopping is big business. Many stores typically depend on strong sales in Q4 to hit their annual goals and put them on a path towards future growth.
But like nearly everything else in 2020, holiday shopping this year will be anything but typical.
Fueled by changes in customer preferences and economic situations, as well as a global pandemic, holiday shopping will be quite different this year. Retailers need to make adjustments to best serve their customers and find success.
Here are five ways holiday shopping will be different in 2020:
- Shopping Will Start Earlier
Most years, the unofficial start of holiday shopping is Black Friday, but this year, it’s already begun in mid- October. Surveys have found that 3 in 10 shoppers will start their holiday shopping earlier than usual this year.
Instead of waiting until stores are crowded in mid-December, shopping early allows customers to be more socially distant and safe. Logistical problems of large, last-minute crowds can also be frustrating and expensive for retailers, who are encouraging shoppers to start early. Spreading out holiday spending also lessens the impact on shoppers’ wallets, many of which are already strained this year.
Amazon Prime Day, which is typically held in July, was moved to October this year, which spurred many
other retailers to run simultaneous sales. Salesforce estimates that $6 billion of retail spending that usually occurs during November’s Cyber Week could be pulled into October this year.
But an extra-long holiday shopping season also brings the risk of burnout for brands and consumers, So stores will need to proactively reinvigorate customers with new deals and communication. - Sales Will Move Online
Instead of in-store doorbusters, the 2020 holiday shopping season will feature predominately online shopping. Many areas still have COVID-19 restrictions in place that limit the capacity and hours of stores, and the impending flu season and cold weather could lead to an increase in cases. Most consumers still aren’t comfortable shopping in store and are instead taking their spending online.
Some estimates put holiday e-commerce sales growing up to 35% this year. To meet the demand, retailers are building out their digital capabilities with improved apps and online shopping experiences. Brands with strong digital offerings like intuitive mobile browsing, simple payment options, chatbots and accurate personalized recommendations will come out on top. - Expect Shipping Delays
The huge growth of online shopping and deliveries will likely put additional strain on the logistics and delivery systems that are already reeling from COVID-19. Many consumers have come to expect shipping delays over the last six months, but they could become even worse during the last few months of the year. Some delivery companies are preparing for the holidays by hiring thousands more drivers, but the strain on an already fragile system could still impact customers, especially as some delivery companies increase their fees to cover additional costs for safety and cleanliness.
To alleviate the shipping delays, many retailers are emphasizing their BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) services and curbside pickup. Customers may be more likely to purchase from stores where they can quickly pick up items instead of having to wait for deliveries.
To avoid customer frustration, retailers will need to be very clear about pre-holiday order deadlines and the fact that orders will likely take longer than normal to be delivered. - Some (But Not All) Customers Will Spend Less
One of the biggest questions surrounding holiday shopping this year is how much people will spend. With economic uncertainty and many people facing job losses or pay cuts, some shoppers may be spending less. A McKinsey report predicted a 25% net decrease in holiday shopping intent. But at the same time, other surveys have found that66% of consumers plan to spend the same amount on holiday shopping or even more this year. In many cases, consumers are willing to spend more to keep traditions alive. And with fewer people traveling over the holidays, consumers may have more money to still sell a large amount of clothes, shoes and electronics, experts are also predicting that consumers will flock to non-traditional gifts that can build relationships. After spending more time than normal at home, many consumers will give games, streaming service subscriptions and vouchers for future travel. People spend on gifts. What does this mean for the holiday shopping season? Spending will be uneven. Some consumers will be eager to have some sort of normalcy and spend their usual amount (or more) on gifts, while others will cut spending because of economic uncertainty. - Non-Traditional Gifts Will Be Popular Forget the typical gifts and stocking stuffers-this year, people will think outside the box. While retailers will also choose to pamper themselves at home with more health and beauty gifts. With the pandemic still in full effect, consumers will likely spend more on at-home fitness equipment, comfortable clothing and home décor to make the most of their time at home.